COVID-19 Model Fitting and Forecasting Report for U.S. States
Andrew Tredennick, Andreas Handel, and John Drake
08 June, 2020
Results
In-Sample Trajectories
## [1] "Alabama-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Alaska-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Arizona-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Arkansas-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "California-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Colorado-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Connecticut-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Delaware-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Florida-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Georgia-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Hawaii-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Idaho-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Illinois-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Indiana-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Iowa-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Kansas-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Kentucky-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Louisiana-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Maine-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Maryland-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Massachusetts-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Michigan-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Minnesota-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Mississippi-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Missouri-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Montana-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Nebraska-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Nevada-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "New Hampshire-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "New Jersey-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "New Mexico-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "New York-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "North Carolina-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "North Dakota-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Ohio-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Oklahoma-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Oregon-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Pennsylvania-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Rhode Island-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "South Carolina-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "South Dakota-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Tennessee-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Texas-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Utah-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Vermont-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Virginia-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Washington-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "West Virginia-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Wisconsin-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Wyoming-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
Projections
## [1] "Alabama-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Alaska-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Arizona-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Arkansas-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "California-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Colorado-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Connecticut-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Delaware-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Florida-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Georgia-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Hawaii-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Idaho-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Illinois-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Indiana-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Iowa-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Kansas-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Kentucky-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Louisiana-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Maine-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Maryland-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Massachusetts-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Michigan-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Minnesota-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Mississippi-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Missouri-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Montana-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Nebraska-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Nevada-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "New Hampshire-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "New Jersey-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "New Mexico-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "New York-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "North Carolina-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "North Dakota-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Ohio-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Oklahoma-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Oregon-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Pennsylvania-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Rhode Island-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "South Carolina-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "South Dakota-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Tennessee-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Texas-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Utah-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Vermont-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Virginia-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Washington-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "West Virginia-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Wisconsin-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
## [1] "Wyoming-COV-2020-06-05-17-26_results.rds"
Parameter Estimates
[1] “Alabama”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 4.3832807 | beta_s |
| 9.5871228 | theta_cases |
| 2.3051780 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0016280 | sigma_dw |
| 3.4181385 | b1 |
| -0.2457232 | b2 |
| -1.9561382 | b3 |
| -2.9614505 | b4 |
| -2.3793894 | b5 |
| -3.1099243 | b6 |
| -2.1773258 | b7 |
| -4.9296009 | b8 |
| -6.8171120 | b9 |
| 0.6271221 | E1_0 |
[1] “Alaska”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.8660404 | beta_s |
| 7.6597372 | theta_cases |
| 39.8781691 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0006461 | sigma_dw |
| 1.4513974 | b1 |
| 5.5698035 | b2 |
| 0.5729251 | b3 |
| -1.2678631 | b4 |
| -1.2075768 | b5 |
| -0.5668896 | b6 |
| -2.0229860 | b7 |
| 6.2014445 | b8 |
| -6.7551775 | b9 |
| 0.4515722 | E1_0 |
[1] “Arizona”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.0770181 | beta_s |
| 6.8643140 | theta_cases |
| 1.2966299 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0019226 | sigma_dw |
| 1.7690856 | b1 |
| 8.1905350 | b2 |
| 0.3741271 | b3 |
| -1.5371412 | b4 |
| -0.1941958 | b5 |
| -0.8539139 | b6 |
| -1.7595679 | b7 |
| 0.8619449 | b8 |
| -8.7433635 | b9 |
| 2.3792348 | E1_0 |
[1] “Arkansas”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.7571766 | beta_s |
| 1.0736524 | theta_cases |
| 28.5321081 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0764253 | sigma_dw |
| 0.7324652 | b1 |
| 5.8388880 | b2 |
| -4.3169564 | b3 |
| 0.2105329 | b4 |
| -3.1079559 | b5 |
| -1.1140663 | b6 |
| -1.8785710 | b7 |
| -1.0179625 | b8 |
| -5.7512111 | b9 |
| 3.7504265 | E1_0 |
[1] “California”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.7679440 | beta_s |
| 3.3360277 | theta_cases |
| 6.2558387 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0982052 | sigma_dw |
| -5.9639320 | b1 |
| 4.4538233 | b2 |
| 1.6699127 | b3 |
| -0.3566824 | b4 |
| 0.3141593 | b5 |
| -1.1993872 | b6 |
| 0.1299772 | b7 |
| -1.2655620 | b8 |
| -6.6051448 | b9 |
| 316.1224838 | E1_0 |
[1] “Colorado”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 43.4988985 | beta_s |
| 1.5072903 | theta_cases |
| 2.0518339 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0074390 | sigma_dw |
| -0.7201826 | b1 |
| -3.8120485 | b2 |
| -4.2327683 | b3 |
| -5.0612641 | b4 |
| -4.4131104 | b5 |
| -5.4395973 | b6 |
| -5.0976059 | b7 |
| -6.2925416 | b8 |
| 2.6913169 | b9 |
| 70.0343141 | E1_0 |
[1] “Connecticut”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 28.1727071 | beta_s |
| 0.5393516 | theta_cases |
| 2.0645410 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0044716 | sigma_dw |
| 7.4361417 | b1 |
| -2.2784788 | b2 |
| -3.8399978 | b3 |
| -3.9837844 | b4 |
| -4.8344309 | b5 |
| -4.0535381 | b6 |
| -5.8121884 | b7 |
| -5.1151040 | b8 |
| 4.4607982 | b9 |
| 1.9341442 | E1_0 |
[1] “Delaware”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 7.368884e-01 | beta_s |
| 1.639711e+00 | theta_cases |
| 5.870767e+05 | theta_deaths |
| 2.485000e-04 | sigma_dw |
| -1.225803e+01 | b1 |
| 9.570659e+00 | b2 |
| 2.054266e+00 | b3 |
| 9.110913e-01 | b4 |
| -4.380060e-02 | b5 |
| -7.054830e-01 | b6 |
| -3.531063e-01 | b7 |
| -3.841845e+00 | b8 |
| -2.747761e+00 | b9 |
| 9.130543e+00 | E1_0 |
[1] “Florida”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 2.5796337 | beta_s |
| 3.2728678 | theta_cases |
| 2.1216102 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0005507 | sigma_dw |
| 0.8683030 | b1 |
| 0.1049252 | b2 |
| -0.4627358 | b3 |
| -2.3193533 | b4 |
| -1.6972446 | b5 |
| -2.2693533 | b6 |
| -1.9132082 | b7 |
| -2.6832272 | b8 |
| 4.5606761 | b9 |
| 25.4575239 | E1_0 |
[1] “Georgia”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.7991285 | beta_s |
| 8.6324599 | theta_cases |
| 1.5128819 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0705818 | sigma_dw |
| 3.7283050 | b1 |
| 10.7905645 | b2 |
| 0.9296338 | b3 |
| -0.4128370 | b4 |
| -0.6082050 | b5 |
| -0.7504206 | b6 |
| -0.8060683 | b7 |
| -1.0456447 | b8 |
| -1.5366543 | b9 |
| 50.2903114 | E1_0 |
[1] “Hawaii”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.937327e+00 | beta_s |
| 9.152745e+00 | theta_cases |
| 1.587970e+08 | theta_deaths |
| 9.849700e-03 | sigma_dw |
| 4.910392e+00 | b1 |
| -1.471515e-01 | b2 |
| -1.258713e+00 | b3 |
| -1.076093e+00 | b4 |
| -2.809073e+00 | b5 |
| -9.551263e-01 | b6 |
| -1.525317e+00 | b7 |
| -2.788907e+00 | b8 |
| -4.999991e-01 | b9 |
| 2.258636e+00 | E1_0 |
[1] “Idaho”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.0767182 | beta_s |
| 1.6567218 | theta_cases |
| 21601.1535890 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0071737 | sigma_dw |
| 0.6177066 | b1 |
| 11.4096293 | b2 |
| 0.4007062 | b3 |
| -2.6539379 | b4 |
| -0.7805213 | b5 |
| -1.3849872 | b6 |
| -1.1556275 | b7 |
| -0.6646392 | b8 |
| 0.1707422 | b9 |
| 3.2688359 | E1_0 |
[1] “Illinois”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 2.2476984 | beta_s |
| 14.6391180 | theta_cases |
| 1.6027743 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0024084 | sigma_dw |
| -1.7141346 | b1 |
| 2.4938988 | b2 |
| -0.8037274 | b3 |
| -1.8963179 | b4 |
| -1.2587652 | b5 |
| -1.9231590 | b6 |
| -1.9470441 | b7 |
| -3.7622361 | b8 |
| 9.9183513 | b9 |
| 6.9991231 | E1_0 |
[1] “Indiana”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.3811614 | beta_s |
| 24.9991814 | theta_cases |
| 0.8769846 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0774635 | sigma_dw |
| 1.0748508 | b1 |
| 9.1046625 | b2 |
| 0.0092665 | b3 |
| -1.9595249 | b4 |
| -0.4927205 | b5 |
| -1.9065220 | b6 |
| -1.3766221 | b7 |
| -2.1154377 | b8 |
| -1.8707313 | b9 |
| 3.5616387 | E1_0 |
[1] “Iowa”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.6254620 | beta_s |
| 6.3837751 | theta_cases |
| 118.3940159 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0051740 | sigma_dw |
| 0.7264101 | b1 |
| 11.0085013 | b2 |
| 1.8088607 | b3 |
| 0.1926240 | b4 |
| 1.6534336 | b5 |
| -1.1351259 | b6 |
| -0.2029071 | b7 |
| -1.3944888 | b8 |
| 9.5707823 | b9 |
| 15.8411012 | E1_0 |
[1] “Kansas”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.4339078 | beta_s |
| 0.4291026 | theta_cases |
| 4.8259693 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0316215 | sigma_dw |
| 3.4013807 | b1 |
| 4.1131471 | b2 |
| -0.2304138 | b3 |
| -2.6669240 | b4 |
| -0.4915859 | b5 |
| -2.0919410 | b6 |
| -1.0687782 | b7 |
| -2.9012028 | b8 |
| 8.3570077 | b9 |
| 4.3096916 | E1_0 |
[1] “Kentucky”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 2.7947434 | beta_s |
| 0.7539810 | theta_cases |
| 4.2150846 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0170410 | sigma_dw |
| -3.3426369 | b1 |
| 0.9429043 | b2 |
| -1.5704903 | b3 |
| -2.5019407 | b4 |
| -2.0922008 | b5 |
| -2.3779705 | b6 |
| -2.1723065 | b7 |
| -2.1317246 | b8 |
| 1.6241936 | b9 |
| 15.4755321 | E1_0 |
[1] “Louisiana”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 49.7828167 | beta_s |
| 1.2290190 | theta_cases |
| 2.8047578 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0026207 | sigma_dw |
| 8.5211000 | b1 |
| -2.1776334 | b2 |
| -5.8482218 | b3 |
| -4.8919174 | b4 |
| -5.3781044 | b5 |
| -5.3552566 | b6 |
| -5.4443590 | b7 |
| -5.3082395 | b8 |
| -0.1048900 | b9 |
| 0.5958535 | E1_0 |
[1] “Maine”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.9435960 | beta_s |
| 8.9320161 | theta_cases |
| 3120.3829864 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0073119 | sigma_dw |
| 9.0045089 | b1 |
| 0.2108416 | b2 |
| -1.4582032 | b3 |
| -1.8898450 | b4 |
| -1.8024249 | b5 |
| -1.0442271 | b6 |
| -2.0880028 | b7 |
| -2.7089510 | b8 |
| -2.6600121 | b9 |
| 4.5485636 | E1_0 |
[1] “Maryland”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.8610137 | beta_s |
| 14.7344693 | theta_cases |
| 1.2899783 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0265646 | sigma_dw |
| 8.1214589 | b1 |
| 3.2764042 | b2 |
| 5.8996233 | b3 |
| -1.0569863 | b4 |
| 0.2665412 | b5 |
| -0.4132983 | b6 |
| -0.7641824 | b7 |
| -1.4361090 | b8 |
| 11.0369859 | b9 |
| 18.1210610 | E1_0 |
[1] “Massachusetts”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.5602947 | beta_s |
| 0.9630255 | theta_cases |
| 2.4022951 | theta_deaths |
| 0.5427711 | sigma_dw |
| 4.0561589 | b1 |
| 4.2768784 | b2 |
| 1.9572243 | b3 |
| 3.9534372 | b4 |
| -1.0713924 | b5 |
| 1.8130655 | b6 |
| -3.9589934 | b7 |
| 8.0674364 | b8 |
| 5163.6119078 | E1_0 |
[1] “Michigan”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.6889367 | beta_s |
| 8.3823152 | theta_cases |
| 0.5473018 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0013519 | sigma_dw |
| 0.1860367 | b1 |
| 9.4889459 | b2 |
| -1.9521796 | b3 |
| 1.6262684 | b4 |
| 0.0241241 | b5 |
| -0.4544147 | b6 |
| -0.2706015 | b7 |
| -0.8208773 | b8 |
| -2.1046806 | b9 |
| 0.1644263 | b10 |
| 392.4528476 | E1_0 |
[1] “Minnesota”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 6.4972237 | beta_s |
| 10.8792458 | theta_cases |
| 1.1918710 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0414302 | sigma_dw |
| 4.4122095 | b1 |
| -2.7479404 | b2 |
| -2.2088759 | b3 |
| -3.0549003 | b4 |
| -1.7760835 | b5 |
| -3.1229172 | b6 |
| -2.9912439 | b7 |
| -4.7561553 | b8 |
| 2.9175244 | b9 |
| 26.1760091 | E1_0 |
[1] “Mississippi”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 3.1986705 | beta_s |
| 11.2898637 | theta_cases |
| 3.8214672 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0085941 | sigma_dw |
| 2.9188204 | b1 |
| 1.2601813 | b2 |
| -2.5004595 | b3 |
| -2.0278527 | b4 |
| -2.1393914 | b5 |
| -2.6526173 | b6 |
| -2.3708373 | b7 |
| -3.1538079 | b8 |
| -5.3470889 | b9 |
| 2.2113987 | E1_0 |
[1] “Missouri”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.6326678 | beta_s |
| 3.5414687 | theta_cases |
| 1.2946470 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0000003 | sigma_dw |
| -9.4514594 | b1 |
| 6.2027874 | b2 |
| -0.3747460 | b3 |
| -2.5277482 | b4 |
| -0.6039613 | b5 |
| -2.7330461 | b6 |
| -1.1462680 | b7 |
| -2.7009356 | b8 |
| 3.4081337 | b9 |
| 0.7236528 | E1_0 |
[1] “Montana”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.8340736 | beta_s |
| 735.6989150 | theta_cases |
| 16.4219164 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0375287 | sigma_dw |
| -4.7891255 | b1 |
| 11.7388123 | b2 |
| -1.7710919 | b3 |
| -0.7914097 | b4 |
| -3.2922283 | b5 |
| 1.0314225 | b6 |
| -3.0616442 | b7 |
| 7.1441004 | b8 |
| -3.9123313 | b9 |
| 3.4257893 | E1_0 |
[1] “Nebraska”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.6628456 | beta_s |
| 4.7368996 | theta_cases |
| 1.9252980 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0156103 | sigma_dw |
| 5.2259122 | b1 |
| -0.8645979 | b2 |
| 3.6865228 | b3 |
| -0.8840122 | b4 |
| 3.4848650 | b5 |
| -1.9286479 | b6 |
| 0.3431453 | b7 |
| -1.2564444 | b8 |
| -1.2186194 | b9 |
| 8.9707773 | E1_0 |
[1] “Nevada”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 3.1252629 | beta_s |
| 5.9555705 | theta_cases |
| 3.5474830 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0021872 | sigma_dw |
| 7.4075383 | b1 |
| -0.7865413 | b2 |
| -0.7653508 | b3 |
| -2.3529299 | b4 |
| -1.8593127 | b5 |
| -2.3050703 | b6 |
| -1.6805577 | b7 |
| -3.1253133 | b8 |
| -3.8497236 | b9 |
| 0.8675513 | E1_0 |
[1] “New Hampshire”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.8596934 | beta_s |
| 0.8335366 | theta_cases |
| 1.7376862 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0000004 | sigma_dw |
| -3.2449419 | b1 |
| 16.3280705 | b2 |
| 0.2427325 | b3 |
| -1.0249739 | b4 |
| 1.3432343 | b5 |
| -1.1031636 | b6 |
| -0.5985241 | b7 |
| -2.6738037 | b8 |
| 2.7157040 | b9 |
| 2.6805880 | E1_0 |
[1] “New Jersey”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 2.2620454 | beta_s |
| 14.8193540 | theta_cases |
| 0.7786405 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0041370 | sigma_dw |
| -7.7196313 | b1 |
| 2.6857535 | b2 |
| 0.0578700 | b3 |
| -2.0685471 | b4 |
| -1.2120120 | b5 |
| -2.4748451 | b6 |
| -1.2565394 | b7 |
| -4.2075857 | b8 |
| 2.2806926 | b9 |
| 34.0321779 | E1_0 |
[1] “New Mexico”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.5376273 | beta_s |
| 3.6097858 | theta_cases |
| 5098.1138521 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0971521 | sigma_dw |
| -1.4143173 | b1 |
| 2.1553615 | b2 |
| 8.0251851 | b3 |
| 0.0136534 | b4 |
| 1.2765158 | b5 |
| -0.1545684 | b6 |
| -0.7808818 | b7 |
| 0.1425139 | b8 |
| -0.5123057 | b9 |
| 14.8113454 | E1_0 |
[1] “New York”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 8.8149063 | beta_s |
| 1.5018783 | theta_cases |
| 17.1895264 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0000006 | sigma_dw |
| 4.4208825 | b1 |
| 1.6995483 | b2 |
| -3.2718768 | b3 |
| -3.3245789 | b4 |
| -2.8426869 | b5 |
| -3.7520711 | b6 |
| -3.3433013 | b7 |
| -3.6720524 | b8 |
| -1.9107269 | b9 |
| 12.7560447 | E1_0 |
[1] “North Carolina”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.3242633 | beta_s |
| 7.5941685 | theta_cases |
| 3.6234649 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0000859 | sigma_dw |
| 2.5387090 | b1 |
| 4.3970900 | b2 |
| -0.3831991 | b3 |
| -1.2386390 | b4 |
| -0.9369233 | b5 |
| -1.4123034 | b6 |
| -1.0646363 | b7 |
| -1.6729640 | b8 |
| 1.2772890 | b9 |
| 1.8322779 | E1_0 |
[1] “North Dakota”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.8709721 | beta_s |
| 5.5523280 | theta_cases |
| 182.3761918 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0696385 | sigma_dw |
| -5.9033475 | b1 |
| 13.3989778 | b2 |
| -3.1112856 | b3 |
| 1.5745511 | b4 |
| -1.0651375 | b5 |
| 0.1381174 | b6 |
| -1.3803690 | b7 |
| -2.5763932 | b8 |
| 8.2226590 | b9 |
| 1.0267111 | E1_0 |
[1] “Ohio”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.5075323 | beta_s |
| 12.8760787 | theta_cases |
| 0.9909933 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0372012 | sigma_dw |
| 8.3416197 | b1 |
| 9.9571722 | b2 |
| -2.3680984 | b3 |
| -0.3310063 | b4 |
| -1.5213935 | b5 |
| -1.5323038 | b6 |
| -1.5649924 | b7 |
| -2.1749583 | b8 |
| -11.7267141 | b9 |
| 3.4294267 | E1_0 |
[1] “Oklahoma”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 5.3218602 | beta_s |
| 6.4953843 | theta_cases |
| 3.7995468 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0005497 | sigma_dw |
| 0.7822881 | b1 |
| -1.4992952 | b2 |
| -1.5141884 | b3 |
| -3.6614332 | b4 |
| -2.9177543 | b5 |
| -2.7894311 | b6 |
| -3.8031529 | b7 |
| -1.7814602 | b8 |
| -7.6904596 | b9 |
| 3.9669594 | E1_0 |
[1] “Oregon”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.6715007 | beta_s |
| 1.9958618 | theta_cases |
| 283.7947192 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0000366 | sigma_dw |
| 5.5207477 | b1 |
| 1.3779230 | b2 |
| 2.1538132 | b3 |
| -1.6335380 | b4 |
| 0.1533807 | b5 |
| -0.5179400 | b6 |
| -1.3439489 | b7 |
| 1.5728192 | b8 |
| 1.4760932 | b9 |
| 29.0469813 | E1_0 |
[1] “Pennsylvania”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.1791103 | beta_s |
| 5.2940354 | theta_cases |
| 0.5647360 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0048053 | sigma_dw |
| -5.4010531 | b1 |
| 1.5978638 | b2 |
| 2.6859822 | b3 |
| -1.8185147 | b4 |
| -0.5941377 | b5 |
| -1.3463901 | b6 |
| -1.5930228 | b7 |
| -1.3733244 | b8 |
| -8.4993047 | b9 |
| 51.7332260 | E1_0 |
[1] “Rhode Island”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.8916566 | beta_s |
| 6.3899914 | theta_cases |
| 4.1387560 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0085126 | sigma_dw |
| 6.6061429 | b1 |
| -4.1104605 | b2 |
| 7.4756205 | b3 |
| 2.8823601 | b4 |
| -0.1881508 | b5 |
| -0.7084982 | b6 |
| -0.0702677 | b7 |
| -2.3402086 | b8 |
| 0.5867052 | b9 |
| -5.7143098 | b10 |
| 2.1707632 | E1_0 |
[1] “South Carolina”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.1958583 | beta_s |
| 0.4654289 | theta_cases |
| 1.1403787 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0000739 | sigma_dw |
| -7.1941028 | b1 |
| 10.2981147 | b2 |
| -3.7945884 | b3 |
| 0.5129097 | b4 |
| -2.0972274 | b5 |
| -0.9384692 | b6 |
| -1.3484785 | b7 |
| -1.6676106 | b8 |
| -6.5833347 | b9 |
| 13.6126551 | E1_0 |
[1] “South Dakota”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.1261697 | beta_s |
| 5.5806531 | theta_cases |
| 0.6213299 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0010196 | sigma_dw |
| -2.2544214 | b1 |
| 0.0873311 | b2 |
| 0.3148881 | b3 |
| 0.8743345 | b4 |
| -2.4353787 | b5 |
| 0.3173868 | b6 |
| -3.1101028 | b7 |
| 1.2109278 | b8 |
| -8.9851958 | b9 |
| 4.0663382 | E1_0 |
[1] “Tennessee”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.7237078 | beta_s |
| 6.0127530 | theta_cases |
| 2.6696593 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0004663 | sigma_dw |
| -3.8016786 | b1 |
| 2.3335783 | b2 |
| -0.9779890 | b3 |
| -2.4115135 | b4 |
| -0.5007558 | b5 |
| -2.6391360 | b6 |
| -1.0801390 | b7 |
| -2.3748471 | b8 |
| -2.2017089 | b9 |
| 14.3208330 | E1_0 |
[1] “Texas”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.9943245 | beta_s |
| 7.3301103 | theta_cases |
| 3.9568634 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0643353 | sigma_dw |
| 4.4310678 | b1 |
| -0.5894229 | b2 |
| 3.5557097 | b3 |
| -1.7650326 | b4 |
| -0.4987843 | b5 |
| -0.7161411 | b6 |
| -1.9351249 | b7 |
| 1.6658774 | b8 |
| -5.4110161 | b9 |
| 28.0077083 | E1_0 |
[1] “Utah”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 15.5525526 | beta_s |
| 6.4119635 | theta_cases |
| 1.4355752 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0064725 | sigma_dw |
| 7.7424789 | b1 |
| -2.8321898 | b2 |
| -3.4131342 | b3 |
| -4.2725437 | b4 |
| -3.4796673 | b5 |
| -4.4068478 | b6 |
| -3.9059943 | b7 |
| -4.0609309 | b8 |
| 5.5513858 | b9 |
| 2.5733278 | E1_0 |
[1] “Vermont”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.8510260 | beta_s |
| 9.4140403 | theta_cases |
| 527.2883252 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0193741 | sigma_dw |
| -3.8853633 | b1 |
| 3.3315833 | b2 |
| 1.7126027 | b3 |
| -2.1982997 | b4 |
| -0.3503585 | b5 |
| -1.3727691 | b6 |
| -0.5564238 | b7 |
| 2.4338321 | b8 |
| 0.1323964 | b9 |
| 12.4956169 | E1_0 |
[1] “Virginia”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.7393459 | beta_s |
| 4.2978281 | theta_cases |
| 3.5881218 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0010020 | sigma_dw |
| 2.3979621 | b1 |
| 0.1671817 | b2 |
| 5.5290566 | b3 |
| -0.8808843 | b4 |
| 0.4853323 | b5 |
| -0.5090894 | b6 |
| -0.0303524 | b7 |
| -1.8168511 | b8 |
| 1.8469957 | b9 |
| 37.8195271 | E1_0 |
[1] “Washington”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.6010624 | beta_s |
| 0.3331323 | theta_cases |
| 1.0464229 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0129503 | sigma_dw |
| -2.4480369 | b1 |
| -0.0531549 | b2 |
| 0.4186632 | b3 |
| 5.3696924 | b4 |
| -4.5927551 | b5 |
| 6.3437589 | b6 |
| -2.8486400 | b7 |
| 3.7394780 | b8 |
| -2.8970479 | b9 |
| 1.6711450 | b10 |
| 0.4995016 | b11 |
| 9.6088591 | b12 |
| -12.3818169 | b13 |
| 1.3089692 | b14 |
| 0.8919281 | E1_0 |
[1] “West Virginia”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 1.7129790 | beta_s |
| 4.4054365 | theta_cases |
| 407.1700005 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0038430 | sigma_dw |
| -13.1537970 | b1 |
| 1.0496058 | b2 |
| 0.4239094 | b3 |
| -2.1263263 | b4 |
| -1.4445385 | b5 |
| -2.4747696 | b6 |
| -0.2033668 | b7 |
| -5.6714306 | b8 |
| -1.1239791 | b9 |
| 0.2752931 | E1_0 |
[1] “Wisconsin”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 45.4264257 | beta_s |
| 9.4037611 | theta_cases |
| 4.8099992 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0000067 | sigma_dw |
| 0.8054664 | b1 |
| -3.3501132 | b2 |
| -4.0057051 | b3 |
| -5.8564755 | b4 |
| -4.1005972 | b5 |
| -5.5403732 | b6 |
| -4.5046283 | b7 |
| -6.4576530 | b8 |
| 0.1028113 | b9 |
| 0.1832401 | E1_0 |
[1] “Wyoming”
| MLE | Names |
|---|---|
| 0.4383731 | beta_s |
| 1.4902249 | theta_cases |
| 111.2359509 | theta_deaths |
| 0.0000917 | sigma_dw |
| -4.5409782 | b1 |
| 4.5168397 | b2 |
| 4.8869817 | b3 |
| -4.2186812 | b4 |
| 3.8899017 | b5 |
| -1.0348022 | b6 |
| 1.2956331 | b7 |
| -6.2906577 | b8 |
| 2.1341080 | b9 |
| 11.2802202 | E1_0 |
Baseline transmission rate parameters
